From the Bretton Woods system to the global non-system: The trials and tribulations of slow learning

In this paper we analyse why an understanding of the global ‘non-system', in which we now live, took so long to arrive after the Bretton Woods system collapsed in 1971. We first describe how knowledge of how an inflation-targeting regime would operate—what we call ‘Taylor-rule macroeconomics'—was only gradually created during the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s. We then describe how, subsequent to this, an awareness emerged, also gradually, of how the international non-system might work, depending, as it does, on Taylor-rule macroeconomics being already in place. We then discuss the Great Moderation, making clear that a well-functioning global non-system would require not just inflation targeting and floating exchange rates in each country, but also adequate fiscal discipline, and a satisfactory form of financial regulation. We describe how a well-functioning version of this global non-system would actually fit together. We then discuss how this non-system has responded to two enormous challenges of the last 15 years, namely the Global Financial Crisis and the Covid pandemic. This discussion of what has happened in the recent past provides the background to a discussion, in the companion paper by Subacchi and Vines in this issue of the Oxford Review of Economic Policy, of the challenges that the global non-system will face in the future. © The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press.

Tail-event driven NETwork dependence in emerging markets

This paper employs the Tail Event NETwork (TENET) to identify financial markets with greater potential risk, and simultaneously investigate the interdependence between them. We find strong time-varying connectedness across 23 emerging markets during the main crisis episodes, including the most recent COVID-19 pandemic, using data from January 1995 to May 2021. The network analysis revealed that emerging European markets are top risk transmitters, whereas emerging Asian markets are top risk receivers. China showed disconnection from the network, reflecting its diversification potential for investors. Our findings offer several policy and regulatory implications. • We investigated the tail-event network dependence of 23 emerging markets;• Tail-Event NETwork (TENET) technique has been employed;• We show that European emerging markets are top risk transmitters, while Asian economies are top risk receivers;• Chinese market is decoupled from the rest of markets analysed. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Emerging Markets Review is the property of Elsevier B.V. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

Combination forecast based on financial stress categories for global equity market volatility: the evidence during the COVID-19 and the global financial crisis periods

The 2008 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic both decrease economic growth and lead to high uncertainty in global stock markets, and financial stress information is closely linked to financial crises. To improve the predictability of the realized volatility of the global equity indices during crises, we examine the predictive role of the Global Financial Stress Index (GFSI) and its categories. We find that the combination predictions based on GFSI's five incorporated categories and three region-based categories outperform the predictions based on the raw GFSI for most indices. Specifically, the DMSPE combination model with a low discount factor has accurate forecasts for 5- and 22-day-ahead realized volatility, and it also performs better than the equal-weighted and the trimmed mean combination methods. In this study, we present a comprehensive analysis of the predictive role of financial stress information in stock market volatility during crises, and the empirical evidence provides a positive case against the ‘forecast combination puzzle'. Our findings are very instructive for policymakers and investors to make their own short-term and long-term plans in crisis. © 2023 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

Measuring economic crises impact transitioning to a circular economy.

Increasing global concern about climate change and the circular economy have successfully established itselves in international and national policies over the last decade, with the aim of reshaping the production and consumer behavior. The circular economy is one of the core pillars of European Union policy and its success depends on the energy efficiency, reducing production costs, and maintaining employment levels by ensuring continuous strong economic independency of the region. While crises are unavoidable and continue to appear, this paper aims to project the impact of any crisis on sustainability transitions using data analysis of the Global Financial crisis from 2008 to 2009 and discuss how the success of the circular economy implementation and environmental policies could be affected. The paper notes that the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 had a short-term positive impact on environmental degradation and that economic interests overshadowed environmental goals. Due to the recent events of the ongoing Russia and Ukraine war, COVID-19 societal and industrial behavior has shifted from sustainable to linear and has taken a step backward in reducing environmental pollution and achieving Sustainable Development Goals. Analysis of already present data and the context of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, reviewing of COVID-19 impact on the global economy, health sector, and environmental policies allows us to predict the consequences, as it relates to the future of circular economy policy. Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at (10.1007/s10668-023-03367-x).

Human resource management in recession: Restructuring and alternatives to downsizing in times of crisis

In just over a decade two global crises have created significant instability across the world and plunged many national economies into recession. While studies of HRM during economic downturns are limited, the global impact of COVID-19 on employment adds impetus to the debate. Though downsizing and mass layoffs attract most attention, redundancies are just one potential response to challenging economic conditions, and various other employment adjustments might be viewed as complements or alternatives to workforce reductions. However, little is known about the implementation of HR practices or enactment of HR strategies during recession. Drawing upon 56 in-depth interviews, this article presents three case studies of recessionary restructuring in British manufacturing firms. The cases share a concern with mitigating redundancies and highlight the importance of actor agency as well as institutional and organisational context in shaping restructuring outcomes. The article contributes to HR theory regarding HRM in recession and employment restructuring.

Do the macro and global economic factors drive the nonperforming loans in GCC economies?

PurposeThe current study aims to investigate the determinants of nonperforming loans (NPLs) in the GCC economies during the period spanning 2000 to 2018. It also examines whether the worldwide financial crisis of 2007–2008, which brought the issue of non–performing loans to the greater attention of academics and policymakers, had a substantial impact on NPLs in this region.Design/methodology/approachThe sample consists of 53 conventional banks from GCC countries, and the basic data for the study is obtained from various sources such as Bankscope, IMF World Economic Outlook, World Bank and Chicago Board of Options Exchange Market Volatility Index. The estimations were done by dynamic panel data regression modeling using system generalized methods of moments.FindingsThe findings reveal that both, the non-oil real GDP growth rate and inflation have favorable effects on NPLs. On the other hand, domestic credit to the private sector and the volatility index have an adverse effect on NPLs. Furthermore, the period-wise analysis shows that the relevance and significance of the determinants of NPLs vary between the precrisis and postcrisis periods. It is also reflected through the intercept dummy, which is found to be significant, indicating that the financial crisis, as a global economic factor, had a significant impact on NPLs. A number of robustness tests are applied, which indicate that the results are mostly robust and consistent in terms of the significance of the explanatory variables and the direction of their relationship with the dependent variable.Practical implicationsPolicymakers and bank authorities must strive to maintain a healthy economy and implement macroprudential policies to improve the financial stability of banks and reduce credit risk.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors' knowledge, this is likely the first study that empirically investigates the influence of the financial crisis on NPLs in the context of GCC economies. In addition, the research spans 19 years to produce more conclusive results.

The systemic risk of US oil and natural gas companies

We analyse the evolution of the systemic risk impact of oil and natural gas companies since 2000. This period is characterised by several events that affected energy source markets: the real effect of the global financial crisis, the explosion of shale production and the diffusion of the Covid-19 pandemic. The price of oil and natural gas showed extreme swings, impacting companies' financial situations, which, accompanied by technological developments in shale production, had an impact on the debt issuance and on the overall risk level of the oil and natural gas sector. By studying the systemic impact of oil and natural gas companies on risk in the financial market, measured by the ΔCoVaR, we observe that in the most recent decade, their role is sensibly increasing compared to 2000–2010, even accounting for the possible effect associated with the increase in companies' sizes. In addition, our results show evidence of a decreasing relevance of traditional drivers of systemic risk, suggesting that additional factors might be present. Finally, when focusing on the impact of Covid-19, we document its relevant role in fuelling the increase in the oil and natural gas companies' systemic impact. © 2023 The Authors

Expected inflation and U.S. stock sector indices: A dynamic time-scale tale from inflationary and deflationary crisis periods

This paper analyses the co-movement between changes in expected inflation and U.S. stock sector returns utilizing a wavelet local multiple correlation approach, which records temporal evolution and potential correlation dynamics at various frequencies. Using daily data from January 2, 2003 to December 30, 2022, we find insignificant correlations in the short term but heterogeneous correlations in longer time periods. After the deflationary GFC period, quantitative easing has turned the long-term correlation negative in some sectors, and since COVID-19, the correlation has been positive. However, energy and materials are pro-inflation sectors in the medium and long term. © 2023 Elsevier Inc.

What can we learn from the 2008 financial crisis for global power decarbonization after COVID-19?

Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, power generation and the associated CO2 emissions in major countries have experienced a decline and rebound. Knowledge on how an economic crisis affects the emission dynamics of the power sector would help alleviate the emission rebound in the post-COVID-19 era. In this study, we investigate the mechanism by which the 2008 global financial crisis sways the dynamics of power decarbonization. The method couples the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) and environmentally extended input-output analysis. Results show that, from 2009 to 2011, global power generation increased rapidly at a rate higher than that of GDP, and the related CO2 emissions and the emission intensity of global electricity supply also rebounded;the rapid economic growth in fossil power-dominated countries (e.g., China, the United States, and India) was the main reason for the growth of electricity related CO2 emissions;and the fixed capital formation was identified as the major driver of the rebound in global electricity consumption. Lessons from the 2008 financial crisis can provide insights for achieving a low-carbon recovery after the COVID-19 crisis, and specific measures have been proposed, for example, setting electricity consumption standards for infrastructure construction projects to reduce electricity consumption induced by the fixed capital formation, and attaching energy efficiency labels and carbon footprint labels to metal products (e.g., iron and steel, aluminum, and fabricated metal products), large quantities of which are used for fixed capital formation. © 2023 The Authors

Hidden causality between oil prices and exchange rates

This work investigates the interactions between oil prices and exchange rates of 6 typical oil importers (China, Japan, and India) and exporters (Canada, Russia, and Saudi Arabia) from 2006 to 2022. We employ a novel method to capture their causal interactions, namely pattern causality, and compare the results to that based on the volatility spillover method. The empirical analysis supports most existing findings that oil prices are bidirectional correlated with exchange rates. However, unlike previous studies that only investigate positive and negative causalities, we highlight dark causality as a more complex interaction. Moreover, dark causality suggests that successive increases (decreases) in oil prices tend to drive the exchange rates of oil exporters to act in an oscillatory manner rather than in a purely positive or opposite trend, and vice versa. Furthermore, we also reveal that dark causality shows dominance during crises, e.g., the global financial crisis, the European debt crisis, the epidemic of COVID-19, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Revealing three types of causalities between oil prices and exchange rates helps policymakers develop more diversified macroeconomic policies. Moreover, the newly identified dark causality can be a useful indicator for investors to risk management. © 2023

Safe-haven properties of green bonds for industrial sectors (GICS) in the United States: Evidence from Covid-19 pandemic and Global Financial Crisis

The Covid-19 pandemic unfolds the vulnerability of financial markets at the time of rare disasters. To hedge the mean-dependent risk, investors rely upon traditional assets such as gold;however, the tail-dependent risk, especially during market turbulence, considerably dampened the hedging effectiveness. On the contrary, green bonds emphasize sustainable investment in the long term and have become an inevitable tool to hedge against financial risks, and climate risks, and rare disasters. Thus, this study explores the hedging and safe haven aspects of the bullish market of green bonds against bearish markets of industry sectors across the United States (U.S.) over the period of 1st January 2008 to 7th May 2021, including the Global Financial Crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic. The findings of cross-quantilogram analysis disclose that green bonds reap diversification benefits during overall market conditions as well as market turmoil, hence confirm the safe-haven behavior of green bonds. Furthermore, our results disclose that the potential role of investment in green bonds can reboot the economy without affecting low-carbon transition targets. © 2023 Elsevier Ltd

The aggregate and sectoral time-varying market efficiency during crisis periods in Turkey: a comparative analysis with COVID-19 outbreak and the global financial crisis.

This study aims to examine the time-varying efficiency of the Turkish stock market's major stock index and eight sectoral indices, including the industrial, financial, service, information technology, basic metals, tourism, real estate investment, and chemical petrol plastic, during the COVID-19 outbreak and the global financial crisis (GFC) within the framework of the adaptive market hypothesis. This study employs multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis to illustrate these sectors' multifractality and short- and long-term dependence. The results show that all sectoral returns have greater persistence during the COVID-19 outbreak than during the GFC. Second, the real estate and information technology industries had the lowest levels of efficiency during the GFC and the COVID-19 outbreak. Lastly, the fat-tailed distribution has a greater effect on multifractality in these industries. Our results validate the conclusions of the adaptive market hypothesis, according to which arbitrage opportunities vary over time, and contribute to policy formulation for future outbreak-induced economic crises.

Investigating The Challenges of Adopting Data Analytics In Zimbabwe's Retail Sector

The retail sector is experiencing unprecedented volatility, uncertainty and ambiguity, and these culminated in the closure of some of its notable giants due to the global financial crisis and the novel corona virus pandemic. This paper uses Organisational Mindfulness (OM) and Resource Based View (RBV) to investigate the adoption of data analytics in developing countries using data from Zimbabwe's retail sector. The results showed that while some industries use big data analytics (BDA), its adoption remains an insurmountable task for some Zimbabwean retailers due to infrastructural, resource and other technical challenges. It revealed that successful adoption of BDA in the retail sector can help change business operations, including the ability to match customer expectations, hone product lines and improve marketing campaigns. © 2022 IEEE.

US–China Economic Rivalry and the Reshoring of Global Supply Chains

Since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008, the USA has changed its economic priorities and policy preferences in a concerted effort to bolster its weight in the global economy, reduce over-reliance on global supply chains, and create more employment within its borders. This change has become more apparent in the wake of the Trump presidency and the COVID-19 pandemic. Reviving the manufacturing industry through reshoring is now the main goal of US politicians. This article analyses the two strategies, in light of heightened technological competition with China, that the USA has brought into effect to reshore its factories from the People's Republic of China and so revitalise the American manufacturing industry. They are neo-protectionism and smart automation. Arguing that neo-protectionist policies and smart automation technologies are interrelated factors that have been used strategically to bring American multinational companies in China back to the USA, we examine whether or not these two strategies—each elements of the US–China tech war—can support the reshoring and revitalisation of the American manufacturing industry. We find that increased neo-protectionist measures and proliferation of smart automation technologies alone will not empower the USA sufficiently to consolidate its technological superiority over China, add impetus to its manufacturing investments, and create well-paying jobs for the broader segments of American society through the reshoring of manufacturing activities. To achieve these goals, the USA should instead implement an integrated policy framework that spans industrial policies to technology policies and tax policies to labour market policies. Otherwise, even though reshoring may gain a certain momentum, new industrial facilities will not expand productivity enough to raise the competitiveness of the US economy to satisfactory levels, and such investments might not provide enough new job opportunities to remediate socioeconomic problems. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Chinese Journal of International Politics is the property of Oxford University Press / USA and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

Revival Duration and Determinants of ASEAN Machinery Trade During COVID-19 Pandemic and the Global Financial Crisis

This study performs survival analysis to evaluate duration of revived and new machinery import and the hazard ratios (HRs) of covariates related to the global financial crisis (GFC) and COVID-19 pandemic in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The results indicate that large tariff margins decreased the possibility of disruption (HR: 0.8024) to Japanese import from ASEAN countries after revived during the COVID-19 pandemic and increased the possibility of disruption (HR: 1.0338) to Chinese import from ASEAN countries of new import during the GFC.

Emotional cycles and collective action: Global crises and the World Social Forum

As the world suffers the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, global justice activists pursue political solutions to its devastating consequences especially on the weakest sections of the world's population. I analyse activists' responses to the 2008 financial crisis to reflect on how collective action is impacted by social crises. The global justice movement and the financial sector face recurring, intertwined, and inversely related cycles of exuberance and crash. I find that, on the one hand, the prevalence and intensity of recurring crises in large transnational collective actors depend on factors including their prevalent emotional dynamics, their dispositions towards their objectives, and their ability to gauge external reality. On the other hand, differential outcomes of crises in groups are accounted for by the capacity to mourn the losses suffered, as opposed to the denial of responsibility and the externalisation of blame. I analyse these emotional dynamics through psychoanalytic lenses to provide a contribution to the literature on the cycles of collective action and, more broadly, to the study of political action and social change.

The Covid-19 pandemic and European trade flows: Evidence from a dynamic panel model

This paper investigates the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on trade flows in the case of the European countries. First, an ARDL dynamic panel model is estimated using the PMG method to analyse monthly data covering the most recent period (2019M1–2021M12);then, the GMM and PCSE approaches are applied to a much longer span of quarterly data (2000Q1–2021Q4), which also includes the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2007–2009, in order to compare the trade impact of two different crises. The findings based on the monthly data provide clear evidence of the significant negative effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on both exports and imports in both the short and the long run, and also suggest that digitalisation was instrumental in mitigating the impact of the crisis and speeding up the recovery. The quarterly analysis over a longer time period indicates that both the GFC and the Covid-19 pandemic had negative effects on trade but of a different magnitude. The use of digital technology enabling remote work and e-commerce are again some of the factors likely explaining why international trade fell by less and also rebounded much more quickly during the Covid-19 pandemic compared to the GFC. © 2023 The Authors. International Journal of Finance & Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Islamic Finance an alternative mode for short term financing – working capital management

PurposeThis paper aims to review and compare the conventional and Islamic perspectives of working capital management (WCM) to devise the best option of financing for managing working capital (WC) in South Asia. The paper also aims to help the business world for running its operations more smoothly by devising an alternative source of financing especially during crises such as the global financial crisis 2008 and the COVID-19 pandemic.Design/methodology/approachThe divergence approach is used for a critical analysis of existing literature to derive the best possible alternative to the conventional system of financing.FindingsThis paper identifies that Islamic financing is an appropriate mode of financing as compared to conventional financing for meeting WC requirements in South Asia. Furthermore, under Islamic financing, the best available alternative way for managing WC needs is the Mudarabah Islamic mode of financing.Research limitations/implicationsThis is a theoretical paper and thus does not include empirical results.Practical implicationsThis paper provides conventional and Islamic perspectives of WCM. The Islamic banks in South Asia may devise policies to encourage and convenience firms for using Mudarabah mode for meeting their WC needs instead of conventional sources. This paper also identifies that small and medium enterprises may be targeted by Islamic banks in Asian markets for providing funds for their smooth operations especially during a financial crisis when conventional banks refuse to lend. This will help managers to run businesses more efficiently and effectively especially during any kind of financial crisis in the future.Originality/valueTo the best of the author's knowledge, this is the first study that studies the relationship between WCM and Islamic financing in comparison to conventional financing. Although prior studies identify an alternative to conventional financing as Islamic financing, no one studied while considering the WC as the main variable. This paper informs practitioners and researchers about a "state of the art” Islamic perspective of WCM.

The politicisation of the European Central Bank and its emergency credit lines outside the Euro Area

Is the European Central Bank (ECB) increasingly acting on political – rather than technocratic – considerations? This question is of a central concern to students of European Union (EU) political economy. This article contributes to this debate by studying the ECB's credit lines to the central banks of EU member states outside the Euro Area during the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 crisis. Both times the ECB accorded selectively better borrowing conditions to some central banks. The article finds that its selection of who gets favourable borrowing terms has indeed become more political. In 2008, the ECB decided the credit terms based on technocratic criteria, but twelve years later, it granted better lending conditions to countries that were close to adopting the euro. How the ECB balances its mandate for price stability in the Euro Area and its role as a supranational EU institution decides whether it will become more politicised. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Journal of European Public Policy is the property of Routledge and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

High frequency volatility spillover between oil and non-energy commodities during crisis and tranquil periods.

In this article, we scrutinize volatility spillover between oil and individual non-energy commodities during crisis and non-crisis periods. We use high-frequency data to capture the effects of both the global financial crisis (2008) and the COVID-19 pandemic between 2008 and 2022. To this end, we utilize wavelet coherence analysis to diagnose the magnitudes of dynamic co-movements and lead-lag effects between commodities. Our results provide evidence of strong coherence between oil and the majority of individual non-energy commodities during both crises. Precious metals were generally found to exhibit heightened levels of co-movement with oil as opposed to other non-energy commodities. On the other hand, weak co-movements were found between oil and a few commodities, namely soy, wheat, zinc, and tin. The lead-lag effects of oil on agricultural commodities, base metals, and precious metals were evident, especially during crisis periods. However, aluminium and precious metals, especially gold, silver, and palladium, also had a lead-lag effect on oil at different points in time, including during the pandemic. We further utilize dynamic frequency-domain connectedness for capturing pairwise volatility spillover indices, with the results providing evidence of heightened volatility spillovers during turbulent times. Our findings have significant implications for retail investors, portfolio managers, and policymakers.